Apostolos Chardalias

September 25, 2025

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, several critical developments are crystallizing across AI, venture capital, markets, and regulation. Below is a curated analysis of what moved and what to watch this month.

Macro & Market Pulse

The OECD’s September Interim Outlook confirmed that global growth has held up better than expected in H1 2025, buoyed by front-loaded trade and resilient industrial output. (OECD) On the monetary front, central banks remain in focus. The Swiss National Bank’s 25 September monetary policy assessment reaffirmed that inflation is modest, maintaining its price-stability path with minor short-term pressures. (snb.ch) In the U.S., Fed watchers are parsing comments from officials like Bowman, who warned that the Fed must avoid being “behind the curve” on rate decisions. (Yahoo Finance)

Implication: Policy divergence is increasing. Regions with inflation flexibility are leaning toward easing, while others may remain cautious. That mixed signal is fueling selective capital flows into growth and innovation sectors. 2. AI & Innovation: Acceleration + Risk

NVIDIA & Intel announced a strategic partnership to jointly develop AI infrastructure and personal computing products, signaling intensified competition over the hardware stack. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
The Anthropic Economic Index (Sep 2025) showed that AI adoption remains uneven across geographies and enterprise sectors — a reminder that not every region or vertical is reaping the same returns. (anthropic.com)
At the policy level, the Orrick AI Law Center’s September update highlighted emerging AI regulation shifts: • Illinois passed a new AI law impacting behavioral health tools • Colorado delayed its AI act enforcement • Clarifications are emerging about when a downstream modifier becomes a “provider” under the EU AI Act (orrick.com)

Takeaway: The infrastructural arms race (chips, edge, compute) continues. Yet the regulatory layer is catching up—especially in verticals like health, security, and public deployment. 3. Crypto & Risk Logic

While September hasn’t produced a marquee crypto collapse, the narrative of risk is intensifying:

Zero-day AI attacks are becoming a growing concern in cyber circles. Autonomous agents might soon exploit novel vulnerabilities, pushing the frontier of offense and defense deeper. (Axios)
Regulatory enforcement is rising globally. From earlier asset seizures to tightening AML/KYC regimes, the crypto sector is now operating with lower tolerance for opacity.

Bottom line: Crypto is no longer just a frontier asset class; it’s now a regulatory battleground and a security high-wire. 4. Venture & Ecosystem Signals

Capital continues to lean heavily toward AI and deeptech. But the Anthropic Index’s findings suggest that many markets and firms are still lagging in adoption. (anthropic.com)
Selective infrastructure plays, particularly in AI hardware, cloud-native services, and compute optimization, are emerging as high-opportunity bets.
Startups must balance speed with discipline: as funding becomes more discerning, business models, defensibility, regulation alignment, and profitability will matter more.

Regulation & Governance

The AI regulatory map is diverging: the EU is enforcing rules on general-purpose AI, U.S. states are passing bespoke AI laws (health, content, safety), and global campaigns are underway to accelerate AI adoption or set guardrails. September also saw growing discourse on the ethical and security implications of AI’s ability to create biological threats — an area few regulators have adequately addressed. (The Washington Post) In the U.S., steps toward modernizing payments and countering fraud via electronic platforms were reemphasized in September’s Treasury meeting. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

Lesson: Regulation is no longer a back-of-room debate — it's now a strategic lever. Founders, investors, and technologists must build with compliance, resilience, and ethics in mind. Insights & What to Watch Next

Capitalize on AI infrastructure — invest in compute, edge, and performance optimization rather than just model innovation.
Prioritize compliance as a core product feature — especially for AI systems touching health, finance, or personal data.
Be selective with crypto exposure — expect regulatory pressure, but also look for arbitrage in secure, transparent rails.
Track regional gaps — markets with low AI saturation may present the next “white space” investment opportunities.
Monitor policy shifts — new AI safety rules, export control adjustments, or content laws can quickly reshape entire plays.